Trial and error should be your main strategy these days. It's your best hope for generating reliable information. As you grope and stumble, keep in mind the following thoughts from philosopher Robert Anton Wilson. "These are the batting averages of the best hitters in baseball history: Ty Cobb: .366; Rogers Hornsby: .358; Joe Jackson: .356. Since an average of .333 means a player did not get a hit two out of every three times he batted, these champions made an out more often than they got a hit. Most professional players do much worse. Moral of the story: Unless you're a brain champion equal to these baseball champions, you're probably wrong close to two out of three times."
Perhaps the moral is that I should want to be a pitcher, not a batter :-)
But yeah, Rob's generally correct on the approach. It bugs me, but I haven't found anything better either. At least I'm making more entertaining mistakes lately, or at least, mistakes I understand less.